US Election 2024 Live Market Reactions
Bloomberg News is tracking how prediction markets and financial markets are moving alongside the vote count. For more financial data, see Bloomberg’s live markets updates.
In prediction markets, users trade contracts about the outcomes of future events. There are a variety of markets, with different audiences, geographical restrictions, fees and trading limits. Critics say some of the markets face limited liquidity or possible manipulation.
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What the Prediction Markets Think
- Harris
- Trump
What Key Votes Are Being Counted
Sources: Polymarket, PredictIt, Kalshi and Associated Press (estimated vote counted)
Note: PredictIt numbers may not add up to 100 — they represent two different contracts, and fees and limits mean they are not always consistent. The charted markets represent a subset of those available to traders. Other markets include Betfair, Manifold, Metaculus, Interactive Brokers and Smarkets.
Terminal subscribers can see state-by-state odds →
How Financial Markets Are Moving
Traders in traditional financial markets are focused on the stronger dollar and steeper yield curve if Trump wins, particularly if Republicans control Congress. The bigger Harris trade, however, is the bet that she can avoid a greater rupture with China.
These charts show how some key assets have changed ▲ ▼ since 10:00 PM on Tuesday, Nov. 5. The shaded areas show the range of movement for a typical night: they cover 80% of nights in the last 90 days.
May strengthen as Trump leads
Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index
Trump’s tariffs are seen as hurting foreign economies, while his looser fiscal policy could drive up interest rates, adding to the dollar's appeal. See more
Bitcoin
Trump has promised a friendly approach to crypto regulation and to use federal funds to buy Bitcoin. See more
Gold
Investors typically seek safety in gold as a hedge against inflation and as a store of value in times of geopolitical uncertainty. See more
May strengthen as Harris leads
Offshore yuan (quoted as CNH-USD)
Trump has proposed steep import tariffs on goods made in China in a bid to boost US manufacturing. See more
Mexican peso (quoted as MXN-USD)
A Harris Administration is seen by some investors as less likely to ramp up trade tariffs or curb investments in Mexico. See more
US 10-year Treasury futures
The US fiscal outlook is expected to worsen under a Trump presidency, potentially boosting inflation and weighing on Treasuries. See more
Note: For chart symmetry purposes, Offshore Yuan is quoted as CNH-USD and Mexican Peso is quoted as MXN-USD.