The New Global Order Is an Assault on Prosperity

When nothing can be taken for granted, what’s an economic forecaster to do? Last week the International Monetary Fund suspended its practice of preparing global economic forecasts for discussion at its spring meetings. Instead it offered a “reference forecast” — in effect, a muddle-through scenario that assumed things would soon get back to sort of normal — alongside alternative projections ranging from not quite so bad to very much worse.

If the current Iran-war ceasefire holds, short-term damage to the world economy will be manageable. If it doesn’t, and the war resumes or escalates, the results will be much worse. Thanks.