Orban’s Defeat Reveals Populism’s Achilles Heel

The humiliation of the architect of “illiberal populism” has understandably led to much rejoicing in the liberal camp. Rejoicing and excited speculation that, set alongside Donald Trump’s troubles, Nigel Farage’s flatlining, Marine Le Pen’s so-so results in France’s municipal election, and Giorgia Meloni’s defeat in an Italian referendum, the populist wave is breaking.

This speculation is premature I’m afraid, the triumph of hope over sober analysis. Left-wing populists such as Britain’s Green Party are surging even as Reform plateaus. The Scottish Nationalist Party looks set to win a majority in the Scottish parliament despite having run the country abysmally. The economic fallout from Trump’s war with Iran will fuel popular anger.