The Hormuz Blockade Is as Much About China as Iran
The US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is an attempt to get China to push Iran into agreeing a lasting ceasefire.
Photographer: Nikolas Kokovlis/NurPhoto/Getty Images
The black market for Iranian oil wouldn’t exist without China. Before the Iran war began, Beijing bought 95% of all the crude Tehran shipped via a network of sanctioned tankers, mysterious traders and shadowy financial links. Hence, President Donald Trump isn’t just targeting Tehran with his blockade of the Strait of Hormuz — he’s aiming at Beijing, too.
On Monday, the US said vessels in Iranian waters would be subject to “interception, diversion and capture.” If its navy enforces a blockade on ships entering and departing Iranian ports and coastal areas east of the Strait of Hormuz in the Gulf of Oman and Arabian Sea, Tehran won’t be able to export a single barrel of oil. The calculus in Washington appears twofold: First, impose an intolerable economic cost on Iran; second, force China to share some of the pain. If Beijing has more at stake, perhaps it will put pressure on Tehran to negotiate, or so the theory goes. The oil math, however, is daunting.