Prisons Are Emptier. Will Psychiatric Hospitals Fill Up?

A fact of American life that probably doesn’t receive enough attention is that the number of people in prison or jail in the US has fallen by 459,000, or 20%, since 2008. Adjusted for population, the decline is 27%.

The uptick since 2020 seems to be mainly catch-up after the US prison and jail population fell by almost 400,000 during the first year of the Covid-19 pandemic — partly because of early releases but mainly because the criminal justice system ground to a halt, causing prison and jail admissions to plummet. The 2023 incarceration rate was still lower than if the 2007-2019 trend had continued, and partial data for 2024 (the Bureau of Justice Statistics’ full prison population report for that year is not expected until the latter half of this one) gives a mixed message, with the federal prisoner total and estimated local jail population down but apparent increases in prisoner counts in three of the five most populous states (Texas, Florida and New York). With serious crime falling sharply in 2024 and 2025, one has to think that overall incarceration rates will soon resume their decline, if not for 2024 then for 2025.1