Juan Pablo Spinetto, Columnist

Lula Risks Making the Same Mistake as Joe Biden

March 26, 2026 at 10:00 AM UTC

JP Spinetto is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering Latin American business, economic affairs and politics. He was previously Bloomberg News’ managing editor for economics and government in the region.

Does yesterday’s man still have a political tomorrow?
Photographer: Raul Arboleda/AFP/Getty Images

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With Brazil’s presidential elections just over six months away, the odds of incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva securing an unprecedented fourth term are fast narrowing.

Recent polling suggests the former union leader is losing ground. An AtlasIntel survey for Bloomberg released Wednesday shows Lula would now lose a runoff to rival Flávio Bolsonaro by one percentage point. In December, he led Bolsonaro by 12 points, a striking illustration of how quickly the 44-year-old senator has closed the gap.