Javier Blas, Columnist

The White House Is Using the Wrong Oil Price for the Iran War

March 19, 2026 at 4:30 PM UTC

Updated on

March 20, 2026 at 7:00 AM UTC

Javier Blas is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering energy and commodities. He is coauthor of “The World for Sale: Money, Power and the Traders Who Barter the Earth’s Resources.”

An unrefined view on the oil price.
Photographer: Mark Felix/Bloomberg

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US President Donald Trump has seemingly turned the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil into a referendum on his war against Iran. Thumbs up if WTI stays below $100 a barrel. Thumbs down if it rises above. Even if he succeeds in keeping that particular gauge below the triple digits, it would be a pyrrhic victory.

What matters for the American economy isn’t the price of WTI, but the cost of refined petroleum products — and they’re rising rapidly. While the price of Texas crude is up about 60% since January, the cost of key everyday fuels has risen by between 85% and 120% roughly.