Colombia’s Real Threat Is Not Political

Colombia’s primary elections left political junkies in ecstasy and economists uneasy.

The better-than-expected performance of center-right senator Paloma Valencia has effectively turned the May 31 presidential vote into a three-way race, with leftist Iván Cepeda and hardliner Abelardo de la Espriella also vying for the two spots in an eventual runoff. Valencia’s emergence adds spark to a contest that now looks wide open: the successor to Gustavo Petro could be one of his close ideological allies, a protégé of his nemesis former president Álvaro Uribe or a cartoonish outsider with no experience in office. For any Nordic political scientist fascinated by complex electoral dynamics, this is irresistible; it guarantees a gripping campaign through the likely June 21 second round.