Heathrow Is Making a $65 Billion Bet Against History

After two decades of dithering and about-turns, Britain is finally moving ahead with plans for a third runway at London’s Heathrow airport. Look at the usage data, and it’s hard to doubt the economic case for expansion: Europe’s busiest airport carries far more passengers relative to its size or number of runways than rival hubs. Yet the proposal has already turned into a dogfight between airlines and the airport’s owners over costs. Given the UK’s checkered record with infrastructure mega-projects, anxieties are justified.

The positives of an enlarged Heathrow are easy to see. Leaving aside the objections of environmental campaigners and local communities that stand to be disrupted, it’s clear that the demand is there. Heathrow’s capacity constraints have resulted in some of the world’s highest airport charges, with carriers willing to pay tens of millions of dollars for slots. The Iran War may further burnish the appeal of relatively stable Western Europe over competing Gulf hubs. Increasing the number of flights by more than half will inject competition, give more airlines a foothold and broaden the range of destinations. In the future, passengers may be able to fly direct to countries such as Indonesia, the Philippines and Peru that aren’t currently served, and to more secondary cities in China and India. What’s not to like?