Kalshi and Polymarket Are Economic Oracles

The rise of prediction markets offers statisticians and social scientists the kind of help that astronomers get from a new space telescope or particle physicists from a bigger supercollider. We finally get to test theories and resolve questions that people, held back by poor data, have been wrangling over for decades.

Most importantly: Are prediction markets superior to experts and market instruments in forecasting future macroeconomic events? And can the prices on platforms including Polymarket and Kalshi Inc. guide important individual and social policy decisions?

Earlier venues that allowed people to wager on the outcomes of economically relevant events were basically laboratory studies with narrow participation, infrequent trading and low stakes. Gambling markets avoided these problems but seldom considered questions that generated data comparable to implied financial market prices or expert judgments.