Factories Can Come Back to the US. Jobs, Not So Much

Ever since manufacturing employment started to decline in the US after hitting a peak of 19.6 million jobs in 1979, every president has trumpeted a plan to revive the country’s industrial base. Despite these efforts, the number of factory jobs hit a bottom in 2010 (not counting a sharp one-month dip during the pandemic) and has been stuck between 12 million and 13 million for more than a decade.

The latest effort to pump up domestic output has been the most aggressive by far. Under President Donald Trump, the government has taken equity stakes in companies and browbeat industry leaders — domestic and foreign — to invest more in the US. His biggest club has been tariffs, which Trump expects will compel companies to open factories in the US instead of paying duties. Even with the Supreme Court blocking Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose tariffs, they aren’t going away.