Mohamed A. El-Erian , Columnist

The US Economic Outlook Is Becoming More Uncertain

Downward revisions to growth projections are just beginning.

March 17, 2025 at 9:00 AM UTC

Mohamed A. El-Erian is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist. A former chief executive officer of Pimco, he is president of Queens’ College, Cambridge; chief economic adviser at Allianz SE; and chair of Gramercy Fund Management. He is author of “The Only Game in Town.”

Buckle up. It’s going to get bumpier.
Photographer: Timothy A. Clary/AFP via Getty Images

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Wall Street analysts and economists have converged on a more turbulent near-term trajectory for the US economy. The outlook is bumpier than anticipated, with lower growth rates, greater inflationary pressures, and more complicated international economic and financial interactions. However, opinions still diverge sharply on the longer-term prospects, with some believing the US is sharpening its “edge” as others fear it is eroding.

Recent “soft” data continues to flash warning signs, highlighted by Friday's disappointing consumer sentiment survey from the University of Michigan. Confidence, income expectations and inflation are all heading the wrong way. Some of these signs are starting to be reflected in the “hard” data, pointing to what I strongly expect will be a massive round of revisions to 2025 growth forecasts.