US Recession Odds Are Becoming Unsettlingly High

The notion of a US recession seemed remote just a few months ago, a mere blip on the radar of economic possibilities. More recently, however, that picture has started to change. A downturn, while still a risk scenario, is no longer unthinkable. A confluence of factors, from policy uncertainties to fragile financial markets, is casting a shadow over the world’s largest economy.

Several key financial indicators are already flashing yellow. The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds has fallen about 70 basis points in recent weeks, while oil prices have slipped below $70 a barrel. These moves coincide with a string of disappointing economic data releases, reflecting growing apprehension about the immediate consequences of President Donald Trump’s trade policies and public sector reforms. Indeed, judging from recent surveys, policy uncertainties have already dampened business and household confidence, clouding the economic outlook. This spreading weakness is manifesting itself in three distinct stages.