What Will Covid Do Next? A Top Pandemic Doctor Has Some Ideas.

One of my favorite stories that I stumbled upon while writing “The Premonition” was of the truly odd and inspiring work done inside the George W. Bush White House between late 2005 and the middle of 2007. Working with a mid-level Centers for Disease Control and Prevention employee named Lisa Koonin, two doctors, Richard Hatchett and Carter Mecher, sought to answer a vexing question: What might society do to protect itself from a new pathogen in the period between the start of a pandemic and the creation of a vaccine? Their work wound up having enormous influence, and the doctors have become known for a peculiar sort of pandemic expertise. Hatchett is now based in London, and runs the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, headquartered in Oslo, which, among other things, helped to fund early production of the new mRNA vaccines. As the omicron variant was emerging, he sat down to answer a few questions about the pandemic and where it might lead. This interview has been edited for clarity.

Michael Lewis: There are early signs that omicron will supplant delta and become the dominant virus, until something comes along to supplant omicron. There are also signs that the existing vaccines might not be as effective at protecting people from the new strain. If all this winds up being true, might we need a vaccine tailored to omicron and — if so — do we wind up chucking all the existing vaccine and return to Go, without collecting $200? Might not this happen over and over again — and we produce billions of doses of vaccines that don't get into people before the virus mutates around them?