Markets Daily

Dollar’s Surprise Gain Confounds Forecasters, Risks Adding to Inflation

Index of the greenback heads for its biggest monthly gain since July.
Marco Rubio, US secretary of state, left, and US President Donald Trump during a cabinet meeting at the White House in Washington, DC, US, on Thursday, March 26, 2026. Trump threatened Iran with intensified military action after Tehran rejected Washington’s push for a peace deal, with the two sides far apart in efforts to end the near month-long war.Photographer: Will Oliver/EPA/Bloomberg/EPA POOL
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While almost all financial assets have fallen since the war broke out, the dollar stands out: It’s on track for its biggest monthly gain since July, buoyed by haven flows and diminished expectations for Fed interest-rate cuts.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index’s 2% gain in March has scrambled Wall Street’s playbook for the world’s dominant reserve currency. It also risks adding to inflationary pressures around the world by making oil and food crops — denominated in dollars — even more expensive for importers.