Predicting El Niño Can Be Perilous During Springtime
The US sees an 80% chance that El Niño will rise from the equatorial Pacific this year, but the so-called spring barrier means such forecasts can be inaccurate.
The Center of Porto Alegre, capital of Rio Grande do Sul, after the overflow of the Guaiba River in Porto Alegre, Brazil in 2024.
Photographer: Ramiro Sanchez/Getty ImagesThis article is for subscribers only.
Welcome to Weather Watch, our weekly newsletter on how the planet’s ever wilder weather patterns are impacting the global economy. Got feedback and forecasts? Write us at weatherteam@bloomberg.net. And sign up here if you’re not on the list already.
The US is predicting an 80% chance that El Niño will rise from the equatorial Pacific this year, but betting on the weather-driving phenomenon in March and April comes with risks.