A Blurry Macro Picture Could Clear Up in 2026. Markets Beware
Traders on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. The last full trading week of 2025 started with stocks falling and bonds rising as Wall Street geared up for key economic data that will help shape the Federal Reserve rate outlook.
Photographer: Michael Nagle/BloombergThis article is for subscribers only.
Investors are hoping that uncertainties around US jobs, inflation and artificial intelligence will finally clear up in 2026. That’s exactly where the big risks lie.
Only once in the past 75 years has the US had a recession when the Fed wasn’t raising interest rates in the previous 12 months. That was the inevitable pandemic one.