Investors Brace for Defining Moment as Powell Heads to Jackson Hole

Treasury investors may be about to hear what they want from Jerome Powell — or not.

Much is at stake as the Federal Reserve chair prepares to speak at the central bank’s annual Jackson Hole gathering, an event he has previously used to signal policy shifts. While a September interest-rate cut was seen as a near certainty, the odds have slipped to around 70%.

The Fed has kept interest rates unchanged in 2025, defying President Donald Trump’s calls for aggressive reductions. Powell has signaled for months that he needs more time to see assess the inflationary impact of tariffs before making a move. Fed’s Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said he expects the September decision to be a “live meeting.”