Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day: Americas

Treasuries rallied ahead of important US inflation data, traders parse the presidential debate aftermath and oil recovers from the lowest since 2021. Here’s what’s moving markets. — Kristine Aquino

US consumer prices probably climbed in August at the slowest pace in more than three years. The figures due on Wednesday are also expected to show a measure of core price gains that excludes food and energy held at the same pace as in July. The question for Federal Reserve policymakers is whether the data would prompt them to stick with a quarter-point interest-rate cut, or opt for a half-point reduction. Traders are fully pricing a smaller cut, while bracing for some possibility of a larger one. “Given building downside risks to the labor market and activity, the bar for a soft-enough CPI reading to price a larger start to rate cuts could be low,” Citigroup economists Veronica Clark and Andrew Hollenhorst wrote in a Sept. 9 report.