Forward Guidance HP

Illustration: Rob Vargas for Bloomberg Markets

Falling Trust in America Is a Pandora’s Box for the Global Economy

Donald Trump has upended the old international order, but nations and investors alike are still anchored to the US for now.

Investors embraced in 2025 the so-called TACO trade—that is, a bet that “Trump Always Chickens Out” on any move that would rattle markets for too long. That idea seems blithe now.

President Donald Trump’s war in Iran is too big to be reversed, even if his sporadic signals of a softer line can spur quick rallies. And deep changes regarding America’s place in the world and in the global economy crystallized even before the fighting began. Think back just several months to the World Economic Forum, when Trump and other world leaders and businesspeople gathered in the snowy Alpine town of Davos, Switzerland. There were moments when the room seemed to tilt.