Trump’s War on Iran Has Traders Staring Down an Energy Crisis
Limited oil price surges signal that traders are betting on a short conflict. A lengthy disruption threatens to cause chaos across markets.
A navy vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway through which much of the world's oil and gas passes on March 1, 2026.
Photographer: Sahar Al Attar/Getty Images
For the past four days, oil and gas traders have watched as a worst-case scenario unfolded for global energy supplies. Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of oil production flows, has all but ground to a halt. Iranian missile and drone attacks forced the closure of both the world’s biggest liquefied natural gas facility and Saudi Arabia’s largest oil refinery.
And yet while prices surged higher, the scale of the moves has been far smaller than in previous crises. Brent crude jumped on Monday, but only to its highest since 2024, while a 39% spike in European natural gas barely registered as a blip compared with the dramatic moves of the 2021-22 energy crisis.