Will Trump Do It? It Pays to Bet ‘No’
Polymarket data shows wagers against Trump taking action would have yielded returns similar to the S&P 500. And gambling that he'll actually follow through was a losing proposition.
A simple rule on Trump would’ve made you money on Polymarket.
Animation: 731; Polymarket; Win McNamee, Muhammad Farhad, Anna Pogrebkova and IcemanJ via Getty Images
President Donald Trump – through speeches, executive orders, social media postings, a ubiquitous public presence and a dizzying array of other premeditated, impulsive or incendiary proclamations – specializes in flooding the zone.
He inevitably leaves flotsam in his wake, whether by accident or design. The net effect is to plunge a global audience into uncertainty about his broader designs, even if some of his core goals (a headlong accretion of executive power, for example) are clear.