China’s Stimulus Kept at Bay With Growth Set to Rebound Amid War

China’s growth likely rebounded in the first quarter of 2026, offering policymakers time to assess the impact of the Iran war on the world’s second-largest economy before stepping in with stimulus.

Gross domestic product is expected to have expanded 4.8% from a year ago, according to the median forecast of economists polled by Bloomberg ahead of the official release on Thursday. That would be an acceleration from the 4.5% gain recorded in the final quarter of 2025, which was the weakest reading since the country reopened after Covid in late 2022.