The New World Order Will Be More Dangerous and More Cooperative

What Ernest Hemingway wrote about going bankrupt can also be said of the end of the rules-based international order. It happened in two ways: gradually, then suddenly. Gradually, as two-plus decades of hypocrisy and failure — the invasion of Iraq, the financial crisis, the pandemic — demonstrated its ineffectiveness and unfairness. And then suddenly, as US President Donald Trump threatened allies, abandoned international agreements, slapped tariffs on everything from Canadian steel to Korean cars, and launched unprovoked military operations against Venezuela and Iran.

Trump has de facto disavowed territorial integrity, self-determination, free trade and human rights — bedrock principles America has championed for 80 years. These were always “pleasant fictions,” ignored when inconvenient to national self-interest. Yet a world order based on American security, financial architecture and problem-solving institutions was more predictable and stable than just about any historical alternative.