Oil to Test Wartime Highs If Hormuz Standstill Drags, JPM Warns

Oil looks set to test levels seen at the height of the war in the Middle East if cargoes shipped through the Strait of Hormuz take until July to fully recover, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.

At present, the market is pricing in a rapid resumption through the waterway, showing expectations for about half of normal flows being restored by May and a full resumption by June, analysts including Parsley Ong said in an April 10 note. However, “a more gradual resumption to 100% of pre-war levels by July might introduce $15-to-$20-a-barrel upside risk to prices,” they said.