Explainer
How Prediction Markets Turned the World Into a Casino
As billions pour into platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket, the line between betting and trading is rapidly disappearing.
When it comes to what you can gamble on these days, all bets are off.
On prediction markets — platforms where people bet against each other on the outcomes of real-world events — traders are wagering on the chances of a major meteor striking Earth before 2030, whether President Donald Trump will be impeached this year, and who the next James Bond will be. As demand soars for the ability to bet on almost anything, prediction markets are processing billions of dollars in volume every week. Traditional players are taking notice: a number of financial giants and sports-betting firms are getting in on the action.