Nationalists Poised to Win Wales and Push Labour Into Third

The Welsh nationalists of Plaid Cymru are set to overtake Labour to become the biggest party in Wales for the first time since 1999’s devolution, YouGov found in a survey that lays bare the danger to Prime Minister Keir Starmer posed by local elections in May.

Plaid are on track to win 43 seats in the Welsh Parliament — known as the Senedd — in the May 7 vote, YouGov said on Wednesday in a detailed so-called multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) poll, which models seat-by-seat results. That’s just six short of an outright majority in the newly enlarged chamber of 96 legislators, putting party leader Rhun ap Iorwerth in “pole position” to become Wales’s next first minister, YouGov said.