Investors Are Betting on an Interest Rate Hike That’s Really Not That Likely
A television station broadcasts Jerome Powell, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, speaking after a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York on March 18.
Photographer: Michael Nagle/BloombergInvestors have lifted odds that the Federal Reserve is on the verge of raising interest rates, but lingering labor-market fragility and the risks to growth from surging oil prices make that a long shot, at least for now.
On March 19, federal funds rate futures showed a 6% chance of an April hike, and have stayed in positive territory since. This marked the first time since December 2023 that investors saw a hike at the central bank’s next policy meeting as more likely than a cut.