Global Trade to Slow Amid Opposing Forces of Energy Surge and AI

Global merchandise trade will decelerate less sharply this year than the World Trade Organization predicted six months ago, but faces a deeper slowdown if war in the Middle East keeps energy prices high for a sustained period.

The volume of goods trade is forecast to rise by 1.9%, compared with the WTO’s prediction in October for a 0.5% gain in 2026 and markedly weaker than a 4.6% jump in 2025 that was attributed to AI and a smaller-than-expected drag from US tariffs.