Traders Bet on Two ECB Hikes This Year as Energy Prices Jump

Traders are fully pricing two interest-rate hikes from the European Central Bank this year, as an attack on Iranian gas assets revives fears of an inflation spike.

Swaps now indicate 50 basis points of monetary tightening in 2026, just before ECB officials are due to announce policy on Thursday. Economists and money markets expect them to hold the deposit rate steady at 2%, putting the focus on their outlook for the rest of the year.