Central Banks

Economists See ECB Holding Rates Until 2028 in Split From Market

The European Central Bank (ECB) headquarters in the financial district of Frankfurt, Germany. — The European Central Bank (ECB) headquarters in the financial district of Frankfurt, Germany.
Photographer: Alex Kraus/Bloomberg

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By Jana Randow and Harumi Ichikura

March 13, 2026 at 5:15 AM UTC

Updated on

March 13, 2026 at 9:34 AM UTC

Economists see the European Central Bank keeping interest rates unchanged through 2027 even as inflation threats resurface.

A Bloomberg survey conducted March 6-11 showed only 7% of respondents expect a move by December and less than a third see any tightening by the end of next year. That puts them at odds with markets, which are pricing a quarter-point increase in the deposit rate to 2.25% by July and a two-in-three chance of another to 2.5% by year-end.