Oil Risk Highest for Philippine Bonds in Asia, China Insulated

Bonds in the Philippines are likely to face the biggest challenge in Asia should the ongoing conflict in the Middle East lead to a sustained increase in oil prices.

Peso-denominated debt has shown the highest sensitivity and the most consistent reaction to crude spikes in recent years, according to a Bloomberg analysis of five events since 2022. The study examined the degree to which bond yields moved outside a normal trading range in these episodes, which include the ongoing Iran conflict and the war in Ukraine.