Prediction Markets Picked Texas Democratic Primary Winner But Missed on GOP Race
An attendee watches election results on a news broadcast during a Texas primary election night in Austin on March 3.
Photographer: Jordan Vonderhaar/BloombergJames Talarico’s victory over Jasmine Crockett in the race for the Democratic nomination for Senate in Texas came as a surprise to many poll watchers. Prediction-market traders never had much doubt.
An average of polls collected by Decision Desk HQ showed Crockett leading for nearly the entire campaign until Talarico captured a narrow lead in its closing days. But within a week of Crockett announcing her plans to run in December, traders on markets like Kalshi and Polymarket placed her odds of winning below 40% — and kept them there through much of the race.