Traders Start Positioning for South African Rate Hike This Month

Interest-rate traders moved to price in a chance of a South African interest-rate hike later this month as the Iran conflict pushed oil prices higher, reviving concerns about inflation.

Forward-rate agreements are now anticipating a rate increase of six basis points at the March 26 policy meeting, or a 24% chance of a 25-basis-point hike. As recently as Friday, they were pricing in almost a 30% chance of a quarter-point cut.