Everybody’s Business

The Prediction Market Debate Is Older Than You Think

We unfurl the centuries-long history of betting on everything, and discuss why—though Trump’s tariffs were ruled illegal—you may never get your money back.

Photo illustration by 731 Getty Images (4), 731 Lexington (1)

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Kalshi and Polymarket also have attracted lawsuits from states that allege they are effectively operating unlicensed casinos, a claim both companies deny. Opponents have criticized them for couching their products in the language of financial empowerment while turning everything into a gambling opportunity, a fraught combination that can create incentives for widespread manipulation.