Private Credit Fears Deepen With UBS Warning of 15% Defaults

WATCH: UBS strategists say private credit could see default rates surge as high as 15% if artificial intelligence triggers an “aggressive” disruption among corporate borrowers. Source: Bloomberg

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By Yash Roy and Bruce Douglas

February 24, 2026 at 11:41 PM UTC

Updated on

February 25, 2026 at 12:10 PM UTC

A few weeks ago, analysts at UBS Group AG laid out a worst-case scenario for defaults in the private credit sector. Their outlook just became more grim.

Strategists including Matthew Mish say private credit could see default rates surge as high as 15%, two percentage points more than the firm forecast less than a month ago, if artificial intelligence triggers an “aggressive” disruption among corporate borrowers.