Ariel’s Rogers Sees 2026 Recession, Dow Falling as Much as 20%

The US will likely slide into a small recession at the end of the year and the stock market will drop as average-income consumers struggle with high living costs, according to John Rogers, chairman and co-chief executive officer of Ariel Investments.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average will probably decline 15% to 20% this year, Rogers told business leaders at the Executives’ Club of Chicago’s annual outlook event. While wealthy consumers are doing well, average Americans are struggling to pay bills, he said.