Russian Oil Flows and Prices Plunge to Hammer Putin’s War Chest

Russia’s crude exports fell sharply during the final weeks of 2025 and into the new year. A 14th straight drop in prices combined with the smaller flows sent the value of shipments to the lowest since the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

The country shipped 3.43 million barrels a day in the four weeks to Jan. 4, according to vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s down by about 440,000 from the period to Dec. 21, with lower shipments from the key Pacific port of Kozmino driving the drop. The flows are volatile, affected by weather, sanctions and the timing of shipments.

Prices of Russian crudes have fallen more steeply than those for global benchmarks following US sanctions on Moscow’s two largest exporters, Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC in October. Urals crude is trading below $35 a barrel in both the Baltic and the Black Sea, about 60% of its price on Oct. 1, with the Pacific ESPO grade down by 25%. In contrast, North Sea Dated crude has lost just 10% of its value over the period, according to Argus Media.