Why Wall Street Thinks Prediction Markets Are Here to Stay
Survey respondents see the line between gambling and investing getting thinner and point to a role for regulation.
Polymarket signage on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on Nov. 13.
Photographer: Michael Nagle/Bloomberg
Wall Street pros are bullish on betting markets and convinced they’re here to stay. Bloomberg Markets surveyed 406 readers in October1 to assess their views of prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi, which are exploding in popularity. The survey comes as a growing number of traditional Wall Street firms are investing in the burgeoning sector, which lets traders wager on sports, politics and other real-world events.
The vast majority of respondents expect more convergence between gaming and finance in the future, and an almost equal number say the blurring line between investing and gambling warrants further regulation. But despite general agreement on the size of the opportunity, survey-takers are more cautious when it comes to their own habits. Among respondents who find prediction markets useful to their job, less than a third say they regularly use them to inform trading decisions.