OBR Says Reeves Had Favorable UK Forecast Before Tax Speech

David Miles is the head of economic analysis at the OBR, and a professor at Imperial College London. He joined Caroline Hepker on Bloomberg radio to discuss the mistake that lead to the early release of the budgets major measures by his organization as well as their assessment of the Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ budget.Source: Bloomberg

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By Philip Aldrick and Caroline Hepker

November 27, 2025 at 3:23 PM UTC

Updated on

November 27, 2025 at 8:31 PM UTC

Rachel Reeves started preparing the public for a manifesto-breaking income-tax rise at the start of November in an unusual pre-budget speech. More surprising was the fact that she did so after privately learning that her fiscal room for maneuver was far better than expected.

The UK Chancellor of the Exchequer spent over a week making the case for a simple, large tax rise to fix the public finances and reassure markets that borrowing was under control, before officials later let it be known the plan had been scrapped in favor of what Paul Johnson, former head of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, described to Bloomberg radio as a “bits and pieces budget.”