Terminal Tariffs: Modeling the Final Destination of Trump’s Trade War

This piece is from a Bloomberg Economics report for the New Economy Forum which went to press in October.

President Donald Trump’s return to the White House has thrown the global trade system into disarray. Leaders have rushed to secure deals with Washington. Average US tariffs have leaped from 2% last year to close to 16%, a level last seen in the 1930s. The new regime will create many losers, few winners.