A Guide to the New World Disorder
French historian Fernand Braudel saw history in three cycles, from days to decades to centuries. In Trump’s second term, all three are shifting at once.
Illustration: Valentin Tkach for Bloomberg
French historian Fernand Braudel identified three cycles of history. The shortest is the day-to-day flow of events; Braudel called them “fireflies” on the stage. Next up are paradigm shifts — like the end of the Cold War — that can play out over decades or longer. Finally, there’s the longue durée: the bedrock of climate and geography that shapes everything else and changes only over centuries or millennia.
Six months into US President Donald Trump’s second term, it’s clear that the course of events has changed. In just a few summer weeks, the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics was fired, Trump attempted a hostile take over of the Federal Reserve, the US hiked tariffs on India to 50%, and the leaders of China, Russia and India put on a show of unity and force in Beijing.