Global Rate Bets Offer EM Investors Refuge From Trump Shock

Some interest rates swaps in Brazil and Chile notched their biggest weekly drops since 2022. 

Photographer: Tuane Fernandes/Bloomberg
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Bets on falling global interest rates are creating a profitable opportunity for emerging-market investors seeking shelter from the volatility sparked by President Donald Trump’s trade war.

The strategy involves targeting the local-currency bonds of developing countries where yields are high and central banks have plenty of room to ease monetary policy in a prolonged global trade war. It can also be expressed through so-called receivers — wagers that interest-rate swaps will fall.