Wall Street’s Market Forecasts Are Out for 2025 — Be Dubious
A quarter-century of predictions show that forecasters usually play it safe
Traders work in the S&P options pit at the Cboe Global Markets exchange in Chicago on Nov. 7.
Photographer: Vincent Alban/BloombergThis article is for subscribers only.
Wall Street’s biggest firms have issued their latest forecasts for the S&P 500 in 2025. They sound a lot like the predictions they made over the last few years. And the years before that.
If hearing the brokerages’ average 2025 forecast of a 9.1% gain is giving you a sense of déjà vu, you’re onto something. Over the past 25 years, 53% of the 376 firm forecasts surveyed by Bloomberg clustered between 0% and 10%.