A Guide to Trump’s Tariff Plans: Expect High Drama and a Bumpy Rollout

There will be tariffs. Extra-large ones on imports from China and medium-size ones for the rest of the world. At least that’s what Donald Trump pledged on the campaign trail. But if there’s anything we learned during his first presidency, it’s that this is a man who relishes chaos, pitting members of his cabinet against each other or making sudden policy U-turns that catch even his closest advisers unawares. And that’s one reason to be less pessimistic about the fresh wave of protectionism he’s promised to unleash on the world.

To Trump, who’s dubbed himself “Tariff Man,” import duties are magical—an instrument to achieve grand strategic goals and also to score tactical wins against adversaries and even partners. If he had his way, the US would hark back to a 19th century Gilded Age model of small government funded largely by tariffs rather than income taxes in which American barons of industry—the Elon Musks of their time—built vast wealth thanks to protectionism and the privilege of limited competition.