American Workers Come Out Winners in a Clash Between Economists Over a Curve

Those who argued that US inflation could not be tamed without a sharp increase in joblessness are shifting their stance.

Illustration: Jack Taylor for Bloomberg Businessweek

What weapon does an economist take to a street fight? A curve, of course.

A staple of economic models, curves can also be repurposed as cudgels. Over the past 18 months, two groups of distinguished economists have sparred publicly over the shape of the Beveridge curve, drawing commentary from the sidelines. Named after William Beveridge, the economist who’s been dubbed the father of Britain’s welfare state, the Beveridge curve maps the level of job vacancies in an economy against the level of employment. The relationship is simple, with the two generally rising or falling in tandem.