Eleven Recessions, Three Elections and an Answer

Sometimes it’s easy to see the problems coming. The Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are concluding the most aggressive tightening campaigns since the 1980s, aiming to quell inflation by cooling overheated economies. In China the real estate sector, which until recently was the main driver of growth, is in crisis.

Small wonder, then, that the worldwide outlook is less than stellar. Bloomberg Economics forecasts global gross domestic product expanding 2.7% in 2024, down from 3% in 2023 and a run rate of 3.5% before the pandemic. We see a downturn—classified as a recession in advanced economies and growth markedly below the long-run average in emerging markets—in 11 of the 34 countries we cover.