What If Europe Ends Up With Too Much Gas?

A relentless stream of bad news has kept European gas markets tight and on edge. First, Moscow turned off the taps; now there’s damage to the pipelines themselves. It could get worse if winter is unusually cold or if there’s further disruption. But perhaps it’s worth stepping back to imagine a world in which Europe gets a little bit luckier?

If the weather is mild, citizens heed the call to curb energy use, and some of the worst outcomes get priced out of markets, Europe could benefit from a big drop in gas prices. That could mean a recession is avoided, inflation falls back earlier than anticipated, and the European Central Bank can ease off on painful rate increases.