Midterm Misery for Biden as Key Economy Gauge Flags 30-Seat Loss
Soaring inflation has pushed the misery index, a measure with a track record of getting elections right, into dangerous territory for Democrats
Joe Biden speaks in the Eisenhower Executive Office Building in Washington, D.C., US, on July 28.
Photographer: Oliver Contreras/Bloomberg
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Whatever else is on Americans’ minds — and that’s a long list right now — the state of the economy looms large in any US election. That spells big trouble for Democrats in November’s midterm vote.
A new study by Bloomberg Economics takes one gauge with a knack of predicting ballot outcomes — the misery index, calculated by adding up the inflation and unemployment rates — and projects it forward through election day.