ECB Bird Watching Suggests a Wait for a Half-Point Hike

The Bloomberg Economics Spectrometer highlights a growing shift in the hawkish direction as the European Central Bank prepares to hike rates for the first time in more than a decade. Still, the gauge also suggests there may not be enough hawks to support a 50 basis-point increase this month. While Governing Council members who have publicly floated a bigger move this week include Austria’s Robert Holzmann, Latvia’s Martins Kazaks and Lithuania’s Gediminas Simkus, BE expects the ECB to raise all three of its main policy rates by only a quarter point in July, followed by a half point in September.

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